Current community forecast
No 98.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 26, 10:04 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 6:25 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the target range for the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points in the statement issued for the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Use the change announced in the first official FOMC statement or decision release tied to the September 15-16, 2026 meeting.
- YES if the target range is at least 25 basis points below the range in effect immediately before that meeting.
- NO if the target range is unchanged or is lowered by less than 25 basis points.
- Do not use the chair's press-conference wording, projections, minutes, market pricing, or later revisions.
- If the September 2026 FOMC meeting is postponed or canceled, resolve N/A unless a substitute official decision release for that meeting is issued.
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt51.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.2%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.3M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.8%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.7%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.6pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.1pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting? resolve?
- Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the target range for the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points in the statement issued for the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting.