Current community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 12:01 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 6:25 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.375% at the FOMC meeting ending October 28, 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.875% at the FOMC meeting ending December 9, 2026?
ForecastExWhat will be the Federal Target Rate range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.125% at the FOMC meeting ending October 28, 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.375% at the FOMC meeting ending December 9, 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the target range for the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points in the statement issued for the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Use the change announced in the first official FOMC statement or decision release tied to the October 27-28, 2026 meeting.
- YES if the target range is at least 25 basis points below the range in effect immediately before that meeting.
- NO if the target range is unchanged or is lowered by less than 25 basis points.
- Do not use the chair's press-conference wording, projections, minutes, market pricing, or later revisions.
- If the October 2026 FOMC meeting is postponed or canceled, resolve N/A unless a substitute official decision release for that meeting is issued.
