Current community forecast
Yes 66.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 24, 11:09 AM UTCFeb 28, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
PredictItWill Marco Rubio win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWill the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsDemocrats win 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsRules
TL;DR - 2020 would resolve NO because of the January 6 insurrection.
- For this question, "states" includes DC since it also votes for President, and "the actual result" is that declared by credible news media.
- This question is a conjunction of all of the following:
- in each state, polling places open normally, everywhere they're usually set up, plus mail-in/drop box voting where applicable;
- in each state, votes are able to be cast normally and they're all included in the count;
- in each state, the officially proclaimed result of the vote matches the actual one;
