Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?
PoliticsOne-OffEntertainmentUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 10, 2026, 4:34 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 20.4%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleFeb 14, 24, 2:41 AMJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes20%
Volume trend
$50Jul 92d of dataJul 10
Related Markets
2028 Republican presidential nominee
$91.3KErika Kirk: 1%
KALSHI
KALSHI
2028 Republican VP nominee
$2.6KMarco Rubio: 24%KALSHI
KALSHIWho will be U.S. President before a person next sets foot on the Moon?
$116Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez: 4.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
$52Bernie Sanders: 3.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
$38.9August 15: 79%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
$25Trump bans abortion nationwide: 3.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%Blockchain.News
Ripple-backed PACs fuel record $189M crypto election spendingCrypto News
Eizenkot kicks off election bid as Polymarket puts him at 40% to lead IsraelBlockchain.News
Supreme Court blow to Trump knocks Newsom to 20.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.News
After SCOTUS mail vote loss, Trump pushes SAVE Act as Vance holds 19.4%Blockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.