Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
One-OffUS PoliticsSociety & Culture3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.4%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 22, 3:46 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will same sex marriage become legal in japan before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage become legal in Vietnam before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHarry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiIdaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
PolymarketRules
Related Markets:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/MattP/will-a-federal-protection-for-gay-m)(https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/will-obergefell-v-hodges-be-complet)(https://manifold.markets/embed/DarwinWu/will-the-supreme-court-overturn-any)
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026? resolve?
- Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Related Markets: