Current community forecast
No 89.5%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 13, 26, 2:28 PM UTCMar 5, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
Manifold MarketsThe next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️
Manifold MarketsGerman Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
PolymarketSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) receives at least 5% of the party list votes ("Zweitstimme") in the next German federal election.
- It will resolve to "No" otherwise.
- The official result will be determined by the Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin).
- Verification can be made via the official website at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/.
- If the party meets the threshold through winning three constituencies despite failing the 5% party list vote, the market will still resolve to "Yes."
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? resolve?
- Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? is scheduled to resolve on March 5, 2029.
- How is Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria