Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.6%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 26, 5:18 PM UTCJul 3, 27, 5:15 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
https://archive.is/BkISd
- Resolves YES if any of the following occur:
- Russian or Belarussian soldiers cross into Polish territory without explicit Polish permission
- Critical Polish infrastructure is targeted in a kinetic attack with Russian or Belarussian missiles or drones
- A "simulated air strike" from Russia or Belarus in which Poland activates its air defenses
- Resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting.