Current community forecast
No 91.1%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMar 14, 26, 9:10 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurWill Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Poland officially completes its withdrawal from the European Union (per Article 50 of the TEU) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution requires either a ratified withdrawal agreement or the expiration of the two-year notification period.
- The market resolves to NO if Poland remains a member state through December 31, 2029.
- Market Background: The 2026 Crisis
- While the 2023 elections brought a pro-EU coalition to power under Donald Tusk, the political landscape shifted dramatically following the June 2025 Presidential Election.
