Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 94.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 29, 23, 2:50 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What is the next country to leave European Union:?
Manifold MarketsWill Poland leave European Union before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to join the European Union?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Union (EU) block X (Twitter) in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.9pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.3pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $728.7K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $967.7K
- 24h Vol
- $113.3K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+1.5pt79.2%
- SPD-1.5pt20.8%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson76.7%
- Ulf Kristersson+1.0pt21.4%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hungary leave the European Union by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Hungary leave the European Union by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will Hungary leave the European Union by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.