Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 63.5%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 14, 26, 2:29 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth impeached by which date?
PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth be impeached?
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth be impeached by the house in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- Pete Hegseth is the 29th United States Secretary of Defense since 2025.
- This market resolves YES if Hegseth is impeached by the House of Representatives by December 31, 2027.
- Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House.
- Resolution will be determined by official House records and news reports from major outlets confirming passage of articles of impeachment.
- Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) introduced articles of impeachment accusing Hegseth of "Murder and Conspiracy to Murder and Reckless and Unlawful Mishandling of Classified Information." The charges relate to military strikes against an alleged narco-boat off the Venezuelan coast on September 2, followed by a second strike that killed survivors of the initial attack, and Hegseth's sharing of real-time information on American troops' movements in a group chat that included The Atlantic's editor-in-chief, discussing strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.