Current community forecast
Yes 53.7%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 25, 25, 3:54 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market would predict whether the National Party-led coalition government in New Zealand (formed after the 2023 election with ACT and New Zealand First) will lose power at the next general election, expected in late 2026.
- Market Resolution Criteria
- YES: The National Party and its coalition partners lose their parliamentary majority in the next general election, and a different party/coalition forms government.
- NO: The National Party and at least some of its coalition partners retain power after the next general election.
- Key Forecasting Factors
- Government Performance
