Will Republicans have high turnout of voters in 2026 midterms?
InflationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms15d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.4%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 2:50 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the percentage of self-identified Republicans in the national exit polls for the 2026 U.S. House elections is 34.0% or greater.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- Primary Source of Truth: The national exit poll dataset produced by Edison Research for the National Election Pool (NEP), as officially reported on major news outlets such as CNN's Exit Polls.
- Metric: Under the "Party Identification" category, the percentage of surveyed voters who identify as "Republican".
- Alternative Fallback: If Edison Research/NEP exit polls are unavailable or do not publish national party identification data by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve to YES if Republican candidates win at least 50.0% of the total national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, as certified and published by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.