Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 82.1%
No 82.1%Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 20, 25, 10:00 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
>$100 million in funding.
- The mission doesn't have to happen during the Trump administration, just the funding.
- Does not have to be a crewed mission.
- Update 2025-22-01 (PST): - NASA can officially lead the mission, if SpaceX is contracted to perform more than $100 million of work.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- Update 2025-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve Yes, the mission must involve a SpaceX-built lander.
