Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 82%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 23, 11:35 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
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PolymarketRules
Ending this market in 2030, as the latest IRB report estimates this as the launch date.
- https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-sample-return-budget-and-schedule-unrealistic-independent-review-concludes/
- [link preview]Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- If the mission is NASA-led and has a primary purpose of retrieving samples, it is considered MSR.
- Missions where the primary purpose is not sample return (e.g., humans landing on Mars) do not count as MSR.
- Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
