Current community forecast
Yes 58.7%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 3, 23, 2:34 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the NASA Mars Sample Return Mission be cancelled?
Manifold MarketsBefore which year will a Venus Sample Return Mission be successfully completed?
Manifold MarketsWho will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China?
Manifold MarketsWill China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhat will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves when either party has Martian soil/rock samples in their possession on Earth.
- Resolves NA if either party completes a human Mars mission.
- June 2024 update: clarifying that if Europe is not involved this question can still resolve NO if the US alone is successful.
