Current community forecast
No 75.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 24, 7:31 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Trading will be extended until the first crewed mars mission will happen The mission's goals must involve at least getting into Mars' orbit (flybys won't count) Mission abortion can be defined as a "partial failure" or inability to complete any single important milestone of the mission (e.g. a decision to not land on Mars if the initial mission involved crewed landing).
- Apollo 13 would count as a mission abortion Loss of life or mission abortion can happen on any stage of the mission
- Update 2025-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that reaching Mars orbit is defined as a successful insertion burn.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit? resolve?
- Will the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is Will the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Trading will be extended until the first crewed mars mission will happen The mission's goals must involve at least getting into Mars' orbit (flybys won't count) Mission abortion can be defined as a "partial failure" or inability to complete any single important milestone of the mission (e.g. a decision to not land on Mars if the initial mission involved crewed landing).