Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?
WeatherOne-Off8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 56.9%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 31, 24, 6:31 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
For this prediction, an eco-terrorism attack is defined as a violent act carried out with the primary intent of promoting environmentalist objectives.
- This question aims to predict if such an attack leading to the death of more than ten people will occur before the end of December 31, 2034.
- The act should either be publicly declared as eco-terrorism by the individuals or group responsible, or it should be designated as such by a recognized authority.
- A "significant loss of life" is specified as the immediate or within one month demise of more than ten individuals directly impacted by the attack.
- The location of the act is not restricted, meaning it can occur anywhere in the world.
- At least two news agencies with a solid reputation for factual reporting must confirm the incident.
