Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 23, 2026, 6:59 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 11:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Mark Sanford of Appalachian Trail fame is running to retake his old seat (SC 1), as Nancy Mace is stepping down to run for governor.
- He has entered a crowded Republican primary.
- This market will resolve YES if Mark Sanford is elected to the House on November 3, and NO otherwise.
- (In theory this is district-agnostic -- if he pivots and runs in Georgia or something and wins, this will still resolve YES, because that would be funny).
- Initializing at 25% for reasons I feel to be self-evident.