Will Lula win Brazil's October 25, 2026 runoff with at least 52% of the valid votes?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin AmericaManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (1.6%)
Resolved: Oct 25, 2026, 9:34 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1.6%
No98.4%
Lost
Won
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FutuurRules
The runoff is between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Resolves YES if Lula wins the runoff and his share of the valid votes (votos válidos) is 52.00% or higher in the official results of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
- Resolves NO otherwise (including if Lula loses).
- Resolves N/A if the runoff is postponed beyond November 15, 2026.
- Trading closes October 25, 2026 at 12:00 Paris time, before polls close.
- The creator will not bet on this market.
