Will Katie Hobbs win reelection for Arizona governor in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms22d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 7:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 91%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 15, 26, 7:34 AM UTCNov 14, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Katie Hobbs wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election and is declared the winner by major news networks (e.g., Associated Press) or certified by the official state canvass.
- This market resolves to NO if another candidate wins the general election, or if Hobbs fails to secure reelection for any reason (including losing the general election or withdrawing).
- Official election canvass and results can be tracked via the Arizona Secretary of State.
- Katie Hobbs was elected as the 23rd Governor of Arizona in 2022.
- The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election takes place on November 3, 2026, where Hobbs is running for a second term as the Democratic nominee.
