Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 26, 12:06 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will John Cornyn win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill James Talarico win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExIf James Talarico is the Democratic nominee, will he win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?
Manifold MarketsWill Jasmine Crockett campaign for James Talarico?
KalshiIf James Talarico wins the Texas Senate election, will democrats win another statewide office?
Manifold MarketsRules
Must be an official endorsement, retweeting or sharing posts promoting Talarico or criticising Paxton don’t count.
- Saying he will vote for Talarico will count.
- Resolves no on poll close at election day.
- Saying voters can make their own mind up doesn’t count.
- Saying I’m not voting for Paxton doesn’t count.
- Saying I’m voting for Talarico in public would count.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico resolve?
- Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Must be an official endorsement, retweeting or sharing posts promoting Talarico or criticising Paxton don’t count.
- Where else is Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.