Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 26, 7:38 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 7:34 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRules
Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? resolve?
- Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.