Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2026 99%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 23, 4:53 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Each of these options resolves either: at the end of the year as NO, or YES if the US is at war with Iran at any point during the year.
- I won't bet.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)?
- Manifold Markets prices 2026 at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent) resolve?
- When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each of these options resolves either: at the end of the year as NO, or YES if the US is at war with Iran at any point during the year.