Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.2%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingOct 31, 26, 10:34 AM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Some people on Twitter think he won’t want to and the president pro tempore might
- Vice presidents normally always do it
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if JD Vance, serving as Vice President and President of the Senate, administers the oath of office (either the official constitutional oath on the Senate floor or the ceremonial reenactment in the Old Senate Chamber) to Abdul El-Sayed as a United States Senator for the term beginning in January 2027.
- This market resolves to NO if:
- Abdul El-Sayed is not seated or sworn into the U.S. Senate (including if he loses the November 2026 general election to Republican Mike Rogers), or
