Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMilitary Installation or Static Deployment 100%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 7:32 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?
Manifold MarketsChina will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a manned U.S. base, outpost, or recognized static troop deployment (e.g., Al Asad in Iraq, Tower 22 in Jordan, or THAAD batteries operating in allied nations).
- U.S. Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air): Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike, intentionally ram (causing casualties/sinking), or shoot down a manned U.S. warship, logistics vessel, or military aircraft.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a recognized U.S. Embassy or Consulate.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if a kinetic attack is successfully executed by recognized Iranian state agents within the 50 U.S. states or official U.S. territories.
- No Direct Attack Occurs in 2026: Resolves YES on Jan 1, 2027, if none of the above kinetic thresholds are crossed.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Military Installation or Static Deployment at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? resolve?
- Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.