Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 2:12 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill any terrorist group detonate a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Japan or South Korea develop a domestic nuclear deterrent before 2050?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolves Yes if a consensus of credible media sources confirm Iran has a nuclear weapon and/or tests or uses a nuclear weapon.
