Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 2:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation-state by December 31, 2026. "Ceases to exist" means the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer recognized as an independent country by the United Nations, its territory is partitioned among other nations, or it is formally dissolved or annexed.
- Resolution will be determined by official UN recognition status and major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC).
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
