Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.3%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 24, 26, 6:00 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2029, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ceases to exist as defined below; otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolves YES if any of the following occurs:
- The North Atlantic Treaty (the 1949 Washington Treaty) is formally terminated or abrogated, or NATO is formally dissolved, disbanded, or wound down as an organization, whether by agreement of its members or otherwise.
- NATO's core institutions are formally abolished such that the organization no longer operates — e.g., its command structure and headquarters are shut and the office of Secretary General is abolished with no continuation.
- NATO's membership falls below two states (a collective-defense alliance cannot exist with fewer than two members).
- Does NOT resolve YES (these are explicitly insufficient):