Current community forecast
Yes 81%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 25, 10:57 AM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This is a long-term YES/NO market about which “lasts longer”: Elon Musk as a living person, or the European Union as an ongoing political union (including clear institutional successors that carry on its identity).
- How this market resolves
- YES – Resolves YES if Elon Musk ceases to exist (see definition below) before the EU (as defined below) ceases to exist.
- NO – Resolves NO if the EU ceases to exist before Elon Musk ceases to exist.
- N/A – Resolves N/A if:
- The two events are effectively simultaneous in real-world terms (no sensible way to say which came first), or
