Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)
Middle EastOne-OffRussia / UkraineChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.5%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 2:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Professor Jiang Xueqin has the Predictive History channel on YouTube:
- Geo-Strategy END: Psychohistory (The Science of Imagining the Future)
- I've extracted the most resolvable statements from this YouTube video:
- If the West Is Collapsing, What Comes Next in 2026? - Prof. Jiang Xueqin
- The questions will resolve YES if I see reports of this in relatively respectable media.
- I know this is a fuzzy resolution, but I'll do my best.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media) resolve?
- Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Professor Jiang Xueqin has the Predictive History channel on YouTube: