Current community forecast
No 60.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 11, 26, 11:09 AM UTCMar 24, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Germany's 2025 election votes are (fully or partially) recounted, will BSW reach 5% of votes?
Manifold MarketsWill any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
KalshiWill a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
PolymarketWill any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent?
KalshiIf asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?
Manifold MarketsWill the German Constitutional Court restrict Björn Höcke's basic rights?
Manifold MarketsRules
Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW party intends to call Germany's Federal Constinutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) after the party very narrowly missed out on reaching the necessary 5% of votes in the last election to get seats in the federal parliament.
- What will be the outcome with regards to a recount?
- If the court rules that BSW gets parliament seats without a recount, or something similar, this still resolves "No".
- The question only refers to the court's ruling in terms of a recount.
- (So whether that recount ends up happening is also irrelevant)
- See this other market for the outcome of a recount if it ends up taking place: https://manifold.markets/ADings/if-germanys-2025-election-votes-are