Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 10:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast
Yes, full recount 6.6%-5.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleFeb 11, 26, 11:09 AMMar 24, 29, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes, full recount7%
Volume trend
$597Jul 212d of dataJul 22
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Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW party intends to call Germany's Federal Constinutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) after the party very narrowly missed out on reaching the necessary 5% of votes in the last election to get seats in the federal parliament.
- What will be the outcome with regards to a recount?
- If the court rules that BSW gets parliament seats without a recount, or something similar, this still resolves "No".
- The question only refers to the court's ruling in terms of a recount.
- (So whether that recount ends up happening is also irrelevant)
- See this other market for the outcome of a recount if it ends up taking place: https://manifold.markets/ADings/if-germanys-2025-election-votes-are