KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 91%
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$17.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.7% / 9.0%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Feb 12, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes9%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 91% | +82pt | $1 | $17.3K | 13 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active85% match · auto | Medium | 93% | +84pt | $1.2K | $1.3K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
1.0 pts5mo
-0.0pt92.1%
+0.0pt7.9%
59 • Medium qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$24.4K
24h Vol$1.2K
POLYMARKETRules
If any federal or state court finds that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For clarity, the following do not satisfy this judgment criterion: findings of procedural irregularities, administrative errors, statutory violations related to election administration procedures (e.g., ballot curing deadlines, signature matching standards, observer access), or violations of election law that do not involve intentional fraud or deliberate manipulation of votes.
- Individual criminal prosecutions or guilty pleas for isolated acts of voter fraud (e.g., a single individual casting an illegal ballot) do not satisfy this criterion, even if the conduct occurred in connection with the 2020 election.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1Jul 322d of dataJul 28
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If any federal or state court finds that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For clarity, the following do not satisfy this judgment criterion: findings of procedural irregularities, administrative errors, statutory violations related to election administration procedures (e.g., ballot curing deadlines, signature matching standards, observer access), or violations of election law that do not involve intentional fraud or deliberate manipulation of votes.
- Individual criminal prosecutions or guilty pleas for isolated acts of voter fraud (e.g., a single individual casting an illegal ballot) do not satisfy this criterion, even if the conduct occurred in connection with the 2020 election.