Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsSociety & Culture2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96.8%
Forecasters
67
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 5, 24, 4:35 PM UTCJan 23, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?
KalshiWill birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?
Manifold MarketsWill Kim Jong Un visit the United States during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsCanada officially joins the United States before Trump's admin leaves power.
Manifold MarketsWill Iran legalize gay marriage?
PolymarketWill Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiRules
Settles Yes if gay marriage is illegal on the federal level on the day prior to the last day Trump is president.
- Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market resolves to Yes if there is a federal law explicitly prohibiting gay marriage, even if individual states have laws permitting it (similar to the current federal/state dynamic with marijuana).
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $829.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $343.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.1pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt14%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Steel Across America?
- $LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency. resolve?
- Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency. is scheduled to resolve on January 23, 2029.
- How is Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Settles Yes if gay marriage is illegal on the federal level on the day prior to the last day Trump is president.