KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$84.2
Liquidity
$30K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 7.1%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 18, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.
Manifold MarketsWill the Supreme Court overturn any of Griswold, Lawrence, or Obergefell by 2040?
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Manifold MarketsWill Iran legalize gay marriage?
PolymarketWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
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KalshiRules
If the Supreme Court of the United States has overturned Obergefell v.
Settles via:Supreme Court
- Hodges after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obergefell v.
- Hodges will be considered “overturned” if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that the Constitution of the United States does not guarantee the right to marriage to same-sex couples.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage??
- Kalshi prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage? resolve?
- Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Supreme Court of the United States has overturned Obergefell v.