If the Supreme Court revisits Obergefell by 2029, who will vote against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastClarence Thomas 97.9%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 25, 3:38 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
Resolves YES for any justice who votes against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, and NO for any justice who votes for a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- Resolves N/A for any justice not on the Court during the case, or who recuses themselves.
- Applies only to the first case revisiting the constitutional right to same-sex marriage by the end of the current presidential term (January 20, 2029), and resolves N/A if no such case occurs.
- Justices' opinions on other related questions, such as whether the reasoning of Obergefell was correct, whether Congress has the right to legislate on same-sex marriage, whether private citizens can discriminate against same-sex couples, etc. are irrelevant.
- This resolves only based on how justices vote on the question of whether there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- CLARIFICATION, August 11, 2025: If a justice votes to preserve the precedent that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, they resolve NO, even if it is only because of stare decisis.
