Will birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96%
No 96%Forecasters
60
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 7, 24, 11:10 PM UTCFeb 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Background: The 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution has historically been interpreted to grant citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil, regardless of their parents' citizenship status (with exceptions for children of foreign diplomats).
- However, there have been political calls to end or modify birthright citizenship.
- This question will resolve based on whether the Trump administration enacts policies or laws that result in at least one individual born in the U.S., who would traditionally have been recognized as a citizen under the 14th Amendment, being denied citizenship or having their citizenship rescinded.
- Question: Will at least one person born on U.S. soil during Donald Trump’s second term be denied U.S. citizenship (or have their citizenship rescinded) due to a change in the interpretation or application of the 14th Amendment by the U.S. government?
- Resolution Criteria:
- Yes: This question will resolve as "Yes" if: