Will Elon spend a night in jail by EOY 2026 if Trump loses, or not if Trump wins?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionCrime & Justice3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 94.8%
Forecasters
113
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 9, 24, 2:09 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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FutuurRules
[tweet]This is a derivative question; it will resolve exactly according to these questions: @/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election
- @/EvanDaniel/will-elon-musk-spend-a-night-in-pri
- It will resolve yes if those questions resolve in different ways.
- That is, if Trump wins and Elon stays out of jail, or Trump loses and Elon goes to jail, this will resolve Yes.
- If the questions resolve in the same way, this question will resolve No.
