Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96.7%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Oct 9, 24, 2:03 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon spend a night in jail by EOY 2026 if Trump loses, or not if Trump wins?
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FutuurRules
As reported by major news sources.
- If in doubt or unclear as of question close time, then as confirmed by government sources such as court records and arrest records.
- Question close time may be extended if unclear and records are not yet available.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk spend a night in prison / jail by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk spend a night in prison / jail by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk spend a night in prison / jail by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will Elon Musk spend a night in prison / jail by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As reported by major news sources.