Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Completes full term 80.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Completes full term 80.3%Forecasters
160
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 25, 5:31 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?
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Manifold MarketsWill either Joe Biden or Donald Trump pass away while serving their second presidential term?
Manifold MarketsLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketRules
the named outcome Trump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on that date as required by the Constitution.
- Staying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term.
- the named outcome Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive.
- If Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market will resolve to this option.
- the named outcome
- Trump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President.
