Will Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingJan 5, 26, 8:22 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and is serving his second presidential term, which under normal constitutional rules should end exactly at 12:00 PM (noon) on January 20, 2029, as defined by the 20th Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump’s second term does not end exactly at that time, for any reason, including the term being extended, shortened, suspended, or otherwise altered.
- In other words, this market asks whether anything abnormal happens to prevent the term from ending exactly on schedule.
- Events that trigger a YES resolution (non-exhaustive)
- Any of the following count as YES, provided they legally affect the term’s end:
- War or armed conflict used to justify continuation or suspension of normal constitutional processes
