Will Dan Osborn be elected to Nebraska's US Senate seat in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.4%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 1:59 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if Dan Osborn wins the U.S. Senate election for Nebraska held on November 3, 2026, and NO otherwise.
- Resolution will be determined by official results from the Nebraska Secretary of State or major news outlets reporting the final vote count.
- Osborn ran a surprisingly competitive campaign in 2024 against Senator Deb Fischer, losing by a narrow margin, and is now running against Republican Senator Pete Ricketts.
- His 2024 performance was the best ever for an independent candidate in a Nebraska US Senate race.
- Osborn is a mechanic and Navy veteran running as an independent.
