2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms6d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOhio 82%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 8:48 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Each answer the resolves independently from each other.
- Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
- In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
- Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
- You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
- Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):
