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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. 2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Manifold Markets

2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection4mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Texas 63.5%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 days ago

Stale
Jun 1, 26, 8:48 AMNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Texas64%

Rules

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):

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Rules

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):