Israel election: Which party will win the most seats?
68.2 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionMiddle East2d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastLikud (Benjamin Netanyahu) 97.2%+68.2ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
54
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+69.9 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 15, 26, 6:50 PM UTCOct 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the political party or joint electoral list that wins the highest number of seats in the Knesset in the next Israeli legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026).
- Resolution will be based on the official final results published by the Israeli Central Elections Committee (CEC).
- The official results can be verified on the CEC Official Website or via primary national news reports covering the final certification.
- In the event of a tie in the number of seats won, the party with the higher total popular vote according to the official CEC data will be declared the winner.
- The Israeli authorities have confirmed the next general election for October 27, 2026.
