Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 13, 25, 4:38 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market immediately resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2030, China clearly demonstrates hostility toward Russia.
- Hostility is defined as any of the following actions:
- Territorial aggression: An attempt to acquire any of Russia's internationally recognized territory through coercion, military action, or other forms of force.
- Severing of diplomatic relations: The formal termination of diplomatic ties by China, such as the withdrawal of ambassadors and closure of embassies.
- Economic warfare: Imposition of significant economic sanctions, trade embargoes, or other major punitive measures targeting Russia.
- Military hostility: Direct military confrontation, including but not limited to attacks on Russian forces, assets, or infrastructure.
