Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 54.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 25, 4:38 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market immediately resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2030, China clearly demonstrates hostility toward Russia.
- Hostility is defined as any of the following actions:
- Territorial aggression: An attempt to acquire any of Russia's internationally recognized territory through coercion, military action, or other forms of force.
- Severing of diplomatic relations: The formal termination of diplomatic ties by China, such as the withdrawal of ambassadors and closure of embassies.
- Economic warfare: Imposition of significant economic sanctions, trade embargoes, or other major punitive measures targeting Russia.
- Military hostility: Direct military confrontation, including but not limited to attacks on Russian forces, assets, or infrastructure.
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China turn on Russia before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China turn on Russia before 2030? resolve?
- Will China turn on Russia before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will China turn on Russia before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market immediately resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2030, China clearly demonstrates hostility toward Russia.