Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 1:43 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be electric cargo ship(s) by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2026 and/or 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves to YES if, before 2027, reliable media or official sources confirm that vessels belonging to the People's Republic of China (PRC) have physically boarded and inspected a commercial merchant ship en route to Taiwan.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- To resolve YES, ALL of the following conditions must be met:
- The Actor (Who is boarding?): The boarding must be conducted by official PRC state vessels or personnel.
- This includes the China Coast Guard (CCG), the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), or the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA).
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027? resolve?
- Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria: