Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 1:43 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be electric cargo ship(s) by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
Manifold MarketsLand Bridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040
Manifold MarketsBridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves to YES if, before 2027, reliable media or official sources confirm that vessels belonging to the People's Republic of China (PRC) have physically boarded and inspected a commercial merchant ship en route to Taiwan.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- To resolve YES, ALL of the following conditions must be met:
- The Actor (Who is boarding?): The boarding must be conducted by official PRC state vessels or personnel.
- This includes the China Coast Guard (CCG), the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), or the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA).