Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 23, 10:46 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
Manifold Marketswill any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Brittany gain independence from France before 2030
Manifold MarketsWhen will Canada gain EU associate status?
KalshiWill Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
KalshiWill Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+0.8pt95%
- September 25+7.0pt88%
- September 23+11.0pt75%
- Total Vol
- $445.3K
- 24h Vol
- $202.9K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.0pt38.1%
- Édouard Philippe25.8%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon13.4%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt29%
- October 3116%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Serbia?
- Aleksandar Vučić+5.7pt52%
- Ilija Srdanović-1.0pt46.1%
- Vladan Đokić+1.4pt2%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-5.0pt23%
- October17%
- September 30,+2.0pt7%
- Total Vol
KALSHISanchez Izquierdo vs Monteiro
- Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo52.4%
- Thiago Monteiro47.6%
- Total Vol
- $44.1K
- 24h Vol
- $44.1K
- Next leader out of power before 2027?
- Russia military action against EU country by which date?
- How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
- Greenland deal text released by which date?
- EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by which date?
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?
- Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
- Berlin State Elections: AfD # of seats?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030? resolve?
- Will Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.