Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 70.3%
Forecasters
136
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 7, 23, 6:40 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
PolymarketRules
Must be largely undisputed.
- The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+1.1pt97%
- September 25-4.0pt85%
- September 30-2.0pt78%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $765.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 3135%
- September 309%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $297.6K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.5pt21%
- October 31+4.0pt14%
- September 30+1.6pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- No Meeting by September 30+0.2pt88.9%
- USA-1.1pt9.1%
- Switzerland+0.3pt1%
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? resolve?
- Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Must be largely undisputed.