KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Nov 5, 2026, 11:58 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before 2029 17%
Before 2029 17%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$2.7K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingSep 16, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
KalshiWill Canada become an EU Associate Member by year-end 2027?
PredictItWill Brittany gain independence from France before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?
Manifold MarketsWill a nation in Europe which is not currently a full UN member state gain that status by 2035.
Manifold MarketsRules
If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. An equivalent status must be expressly presented by Canada and the EU as the institutional arrangement contemplated by the EU's Canadian associate-membership proposal. Both sides must sign or formally adopt the same agreement. Full EU membership, ratification, and entry into force are not required. Proposals, invitations, statements of intent, negotiations, or action by only one side do not qualify. Existing or sector-specific trade, defence, research, or mobility arrangements alone do not qualify.
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2029
- If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...? · June 30, 2027 28%
