What are the current odds for Which parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election??

Manifold Markets prices AfD at 84.2% as of October 26, 2026.

Which parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

AfD 84.2%

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 15 hours ago

Stale

Mar 3, 25, 11:06 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves based on the results of the next Thuringian state election.

For each party listed:
Resolves YES if the party wins more seats in the Landtag of Thuringia compared to the number of seats it won in the 2024 state election
Resolves NO if the party wins the same number or fewer seats.
If no election is held by 2030, all options will resolve NO.