KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.4K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 10.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 7:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by which date?
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KalshiWill Ukraine become more authoritarian in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the European Union agrees to or announces that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the European Union
- Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status means any formal EU-approved pre-accession status or arrangement, however described, that allows Ukraine to sit in, attend, observe, or be represented at meetings of EU ministers, EU leaders, or EU institutions without voting rights before Ukraine becomes a full EU Member State.
- Candidate-country status, accession negotiations, EU-law screening, funding access, or Ukraine’s existing EU Association Agreement shall not qualify unless Ukraine receives new non-voting participation or representation rights in EU ministerial, leaders’, or institutional meetings.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
Open markets
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- October 3116%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.1M
- 24h Vol
- $126.4K
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- Yes+4.5pt69.3%
- No-4.5pt30.7%
- Total Vol
- $590.5K
- 24h Vol
- $64K
POLYMARKETWill Russia capture Orikhiv by which date?
- December 31-3.5pt33%
- September 30+0.7pt4%
- Total Vol
- $334.9K
- 24h Vol
- $41.6K
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- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December5%
- July0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25M
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- Save the Children-0.2pt11%
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+28 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt71%
- November 30,-4.0pt62%
- October 31,+0.5pt61%
+15 more outcomes
- Russia military action against EU country by which date?
- EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by which date?
- Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 95% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026? resolve?
- Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the European Union agrees to or announces that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.